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PLCO Lung Cancer Screening Risk Calculator

The PLCO model estimates 6-year lung cancer risk to determine eligibility for low-dose CT screening, developed from the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial with 80,375 participants.

Purpose:
Estimate 6-year lung cancer risk and determine LDCT screening eligibility
Population:
Adults aged 55-80 with smoking history
Factors:
Age, Race/ethnicity, Education, BMI, COPD, Personal cancer history, Family lung cancer history, Smoking status, Pack-years, Quit time
Reference:
Tammemägi et al., NEJM 2013
HomePLCOm2012 Lung Cancer Risk
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PLCOm2012 Lung Cancer Risk

Clinical Context & Background

The PLCOm2012 model estimates the 6-year risk of developing lung cancer. It is considered more accurate than the USPSTF criteria (Age 50-80, >20 pack-years) for selecting patients for lung cancer screening with Low-Dose CT (LDCT). A risk threshold of ≥ 1.51% is often used to determine eligibility.
Primary Source EvidenceTammemägi MC, et al. Selection criteria for lung-cancer screening. N Engl J Med. 2013;368(8):728-736.
Formula Logic
Logistic regression based on Age, Race, Education, BMI, COPD, Cancer Hx, Family Hx, and Smoking intensity/duration.

Reference Data

6-Year RiskRecommendation
< 1.51%Does not meet high-risk screening criteria.
≥ 1.51%Meets NCCN criteria for Lung Cancer Screening (LDCT).

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