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Clinical calculator summary

Brock (PanCan) Nodule Risk

The Brock (PanCan) model is derived from the Pan-Canadian Early Detection of Lung Cancer Study.

Evidence-based context for fast calculator use

Purpose:
Brock PanCan model estimates lung cancer probability in pulmonary nodules detected on CT to guide biopsy versus surveillance decisions.
Population:
patients undergoing thoracic oncology risk, staging, or nodule assessment
Factors:
Age, Sex, Family History of Lung Cancer?, Emphysema present on CT?, Nodule Size, Nodule Type, Located in Upper Lobe?, Nodule Count
Reference:
McWilliams A, et al. Probability of cancer in pulmonary nodules detected on first screening CT. N Engl J Med. 2013;369(10):910-919.
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Brock (PanCan) Nodule Risk

years
mm

Clinical Context & Background

The Brock (PanCan) model is derived from the Pan-Canadian Early Detection of Lung Cancer Study. It is often preferred over the Mayo model for patients undergoing lung cancer screening or those with nodules found on CT, as it accounts for nodule type (ground-glass vs solid) and spiculation in more detail.
Primary Source EvidenceMcWilliams A, et al. Probability of cancer in pulmonary nodules detected on first screening CT. N Engl J Med. 2013;369(10):910-919.
Formula Logic
Logit-based regression using Age, Sex, Family Hx, Emphysema, Nodule Size, Type, Location, Count, Spiculation.

Reference Data

Risk ProbabilityManagement Suggestion (Fleischner/BTS)
< 1%Very Low Risk. No routine follow-up.
1 - 10%Low/Intermediate. CT Surveillance (3-12 months).
> 10%High Risk. PET-CT or Biopsy/Resection recommended.

Clinical Workflow

Use, Interpret, And Continue The Patient Pathway

Expand for workflow guidance, limitations, examples, and related next steps.

When To Use

  • Use Brock (PanCan) Nodule Risk when brock PanCan model estimates lung cancer probability in pulmonary nodules detected on CT to guide biopsy versus surveillance decisions.
  • Confirm that the patient, diagnosis, disease phase, and available inputs match the cited model before calculation.

How To Interpret

  • Interpret the displayed result using the calculator-specific formula and reference table, spanning < 1% through > 10%.
  • A boundary result should prompt input verification and clinical review rather than false precision.

What To Do Next

  • Confirm whether the clinical question is screening eligibility, nodule malignancy, staging, or treatment prognosis and move to the corresponding thoracic pathway.
  • Document the inputs, result, timing, and clinical context so the assessment can be reproduced.

Limitations

  • Lung screening, nodule probability, radiology classification, and cancer staging tools answer different questions.
  • The result supports clinician judgment and does not independently determine treatment.

Validated Population

patients undergoing thoracic oncology risk, staging, or nodule assessment

How to apply this result

For a representative case, verify Age, Sex, Family History of Lung Cancer?, calculate the result, and confirm that its classification matches the highlighted reference band before continuing the disease-specific pathway.

Lung & Thoracic Oncology hubContinue to related calculators and clinical workflow resources.

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Frequently Asked Questions

When should Brock (PanCan) Nodule Risk be used?

Use it for patients undergoing thoracic oncology risk, staging, or nodule assessment when all required inputs and the intended clinical setting are confirmed.

Can Brock (PanCan) Nodule Risk determine treatment by itself?

No. Interpret the result with the cited evidence, complete clinical assessment, current guidelines, and patient-specific goals.

Evidence-based oncology decision support. Verify with clinical guidelines.