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MSKCC DCIS Nomogram

The Memorial Sloan Kettering DCIS nomogram predicts the probability of local recurrence after breast-conserving surgery for ductal carcinoma in situ, using pathological and treatment variables.

Purpose:
Estimate 5 and 10-year local recurrence risk after breast-conserving surgery for DCIS
Population:
Women with ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) treated with breast-conserving surgery
Factors:
Age at diagnosis, Family history, Presentation method, Nuclear grade, Necrosis, Margin status, Number of excisions, Radiation therapy, Endocrine therapy
Reference:
Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center
HomeMSKCC DCIS Nomogram — Breast Cancer DCIS Recurrence Risk Calculator
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MSKCC DCIS Nomogram — Breast Cancer DCIS Recurrence Risk Calculator

Clinical Context & Background

The Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC) DCIS Nomogram predicts the 5-year and 10-year risk of ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence (IBTR) after breast-conserving surgery alone (without radiation). It helps identify low-risk patients who might safely omit radiation therapy.
Primary Source EvidenceRudloff U, Jacks LM, Goldberg JI, et al. Nomogram for predicting the risk of local recurrence after breast-conserving surgery for ductal carcinoma in situ. J Clin Oncol. 2010;28(23):3762-3769.
Formula Logic
Multivariable model using Age, Family Hx, Presentation, Margins, Grade, Necrosis, and Number of Excisions.

Reference Data

Risk FactorImpact on Recurrence
Age < 40High Risk
Positive / Close MarginsHigh Risk
High Grade / NecrosisHigh Risk
Symptomatic PresentationHigh Risk

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