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Clinical calculator summary

Herder Model (Pulmonary Nodule)

The Herder model refines the Mayo Clinic model by adding FDG-PET avidity.

Evidence-based context for fast calculator use

Purpose:
Herder Model estimates malignancy probability in solitary pulmonary nodules using PET-CT results to guide biopsy or surveillance decisions.
Population:
patients undergoing thoracic oncology risk, staging, or nodule assessment
Factors:
Age, Current or Former Smoker?, History of Extrathoracic Cancer?, Nodule Diameter, Is the nodule spiculated?, Located in Upper Lobe?, FDG-PET Avidity
Reference:
Herder GJ, et al. Clinical prediction model to characterize pulmonary nodules: validation and added value of 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography. Chest. 2005;128(4):2490-2496.
HomeHerder Model (Pulmonary Nodule)
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Herder Model (Pulmonary Nodule)

years
mm

Clinical Context & Background

The Herder model refines the Mayo Clinic model by adding FDG-PET avidity. It is highly accurate for predicting malignancy in solitary pulmonary nodules that have been evaluated with PET scans. It performs better than the Mayo model alone for this specific cohort.
Primary Source EvidenceHerder GJ, et al. Clinical prediction model to characterize pulmonary nodules: validation and added value of 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography. Chest. 2005;128(4):2490-2496.
Formula Logic
Logit = Mayo Logit + PET Coefficient.

Reference Data

ProbabilityRisk Category
< 10%Low Risk
10 - 70%Intermediate Risk
> 70%High Risk

Clinical Workflow

Use, Interpret, And Continue The Patient Pathway

Expand for workflow guidance, limitations, examples, and related next steps.

When To Use

  • Use Herder Model (Pulmonary Nodule) when herder Model estimates malignancy probability in solitary pulmonary nodules using PET-CT results to guide biopsy or surveillance decisions.
  • Confirm that the patient, diagnosis, disease phase, and available inputs match the cited model before calculation.

How To Interpret

  • Interpret the displayed result using the calculator-specific formula and reference table, spanning < 10% through > 70%.
  • A boundary result should prompt input verification and clinical review rather than false precision.

What To Do Next

  • Confirm whether the clinical question is screening eligibility, nodule malignancy, staging, or treatment prognosis and move to the corresponding thoracic pathway.
  • Document the inputs, result, timing, and clinical context so the assessment can be reproduced.

Limitations

  • Lung screening, nodule probability, radiology classification, and cancer staging tools answer different questions.
  • The result supports clinician judgment and does not independently determine treatment.

Validated Population

patients undergoing thoracic oncology risk, staging, or nodule assessment

How to apply this result

For a representative case, verify Age, Current or Former Smoker?, History of Extrathoracic Cancer?, calculate the result, and confirm that its classification matches the highlighted reference band before continuing the disease-specific pathway.

Lung & Thoracic Oncology hubContinue to related calculators and clinical workflow resources.

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Frequently Asked Questions

When should Herder Model (Pulmonary Nodule) be used?

Use it for patients undergoing thoracic oncology risk, staging, or nodule assessment when all required inputs and the intended clinical setting are confirmed.

Can Herder Model (Pulmonary Nodule) determine treatment by itself?

No. Interpret the result with the cited evidence, complete clinical assessment, current guidelines, and patient-specific goals.

Evidence-based oncology decision support. Verify with clinical guidelines.