Clinical calculator summary
Original EORTC 2006 NMIBC risk tables
Clinical calculator summary
Original EORTC 2006 NMIBC risk tables
Separate additive scores and lookup tables for historical recurrence and progression probabilities after TURBT.
Evidence-based context for fast calculator use
- Purpose:
- Assign the original EORTC 2006 recurrence and progression probability bands from a complete six-factor assessment.
- Population:
- Papillary Ta/T1 bladder cancer after TURBT, with CIS recorded only when concomitant.
- Factors:
- Number of tumors, Tumor diameter, Prior recurrence rate, Ta versus T1, Concomitant CIS, WHO 1973 grade
- Reference:
- Sylvester RJ, et al. Eur Urol. 2006;49(3):466-477.
EORTC 2006 NMIBC Recurrence & Progression Tables
Clinical Context & Background
Calculate recurrence and progression points separately from all six required factors, then map each exact total to its original 1-year and 5-year EORTC 2006 probability band.Reference Data
| Outcome and score | Historical 1-year probability | Historical 5-year probability |
|---|---|---|
| Recurrence 0 | 15% | 31% |
| Recurrence 1-4 | 24% | 46% |
| Recurrence 5-9 | 38% | 62% |
| Recurrence 10-17 | 61% | 78% |
| Progression 0 | 0.2% | 0.8% |
| Progression 2-6 | 1% | 6% |
| Progression 7-13 | 5% | 17% |
| Progression 14-23 | 17% | 45% |
Clinical Workflow
Use, Interpret, And Continue The Patient Pathway
Expand for workflow guidance, limitations, examples, and related next steps.
Clinical Workflow
Use, Interpret, And Continue The Patient Pathway
Expand for workflow guidance, limitations, examples, and related next steps.
When To Use
- Use after TURBT for papillary Ta/T1 bladder cancer when all six original variables are known.
- Use WHO 1973 grade and record CIS only when it is concomitant with papillary Ta/T1 disease.
How To Interpret
- Read recurrence and progression as separate scores with separate 1-year and 5-year historical probability bands.
- Treat the probabilities as cohort estimates from the original EORTC trial population, not individualized predictions.
What To Do Next
- Document all six inputs, both scores, both probability bands, and the assessment date so the result can be reproduced.
- Determine surveillance and treatment separately using current guidance, pathology, prior treatment, patient factors, and shared decision-making.
Limitations
- Not designed for pure CIS, muscle-invasive disease, upper-tract urothelial cancer, or prognosis outside the post-TURBT papillary Ta/T1 setting.
- Original cohorts mostly received intravesical chemotherapy and did not reflect routine repeat TURBT or maintenance BCG; risk may be overestimated in BCG-treated populations.
- This is the original 2006 model, not the CUETO BCG score or the EAU 2021 NMIBC progression model.
Validated Population
The 2,596-patient combined EORTC trial cohort used for the original 2006 papillary Ta/T1 recurrence and progression tables.
Keep the two outcomes separate
A recurrence score and progression score may fall in different probability bands; neither result independently selects treatment.
Calculation verification history
Verified
Calculation verification history
Verified: Production browser revalidation
- Three source-backed cases passed through visible production controls at minimum, middle-band boundaries, and maximum dual scores.
- Both recurrence and progression scores and historical lookup probabilities matched the original EORTC tables.
- No unexpected N/A, literal undefined value, stale control, unsupported gauge, or browser-console error was observed.
Case-level evidence is retained in validation/browser-revalidation/eortc-nmibc-bladder-cancer-recurrence-2026-08-03.json.
: Production browser validation
- Ten source-backed cases were exercised on the public production route through visible browser controls; 10/10 case records passed their expected-versus-observed assertions across 13 visible submissions.
- Overall browser status: failed-console. medium: Production emitted minified React error #418 during route load.
- Case-level inputs, expected and observed results, reset/repeat behavior, failure reproductions, and console evidence are retained in the production-browser evidence record.
Case-level production evidence is retained in validation/browser-production/eortc-nmibc-bladder-cancer-recurrence.json.
: Full validation test
- Verified all 216 feasible six-factor combinations through the calculation and UI paths, both separate score engines, every recurrence and progression probability-band boundary, all four 1-year and 5-year estimates, strict malformed-input rejection, dual-trace reconciliation, neutral display, and public evidence wiring.
: Correction history
- Corrected WHO 1973 G3 recurrence from 0 to 2 points while preserving its 5 progression points; removed favorable defaults and unsafe coercion; separated both score engines; restored all four published probabilities; and replaced treatment directives with exact historical papillary Ta/T1 post-TURBT scope and limitations.
Verification confirms the calculator implementation against the cited model; it is not independent clinical validation, regulatory approval, or medical advice.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does WHO 1973 G3 contribute to both scores?
Yes. G3 contributes 2 recurrence points and 5 progression points in the original EORTC 2006 tables.
Can this calculator be used for pure CIS?
No. The CIS factor means concomitant CIS in a patient with papillary Ta/T1 disease.
Do these probabilities determine BCG or cystectomy treatment?
No. They are historical cohort estimates. Current management requires current guideline review and individualized clinical assessment.
Evidence-based oncology decision support. Verify with clinical guidelines.