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Clinical calculator summary

EORTC NMIBC Risk Calculator

The EORTC risk tables predict recurrence and progression probabilities in non-muscle invasive bladder cancer, developed from 2,596 patients across seven EORTC trials.

Evidence-based context for fast calculator use

Purpose:
Estimate 1 and 5-year recurrence and progression risk in NMIBC
Population:
Patients with non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (Ta, T1, CIS)
Factors:
Number of tumours, Tumour size, Prior recurrence rate, T category, CIS presence, Grade
Reference:
Sylvester et al., European Urology 2006
HomeEORTC NMIBC Risk Calculator — Bladder Cancer Recurrence & Progression
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EORTC NMIBC Risk Calculator — Bladder Cancer Recurrence & Progression

Clinical Context & Background

The EORTC risk tables predict the probability of recurrence and progression to muscle-invasive disease in NMIBC patients. It is based on a combined score of 6 factors: Number of tumors, Tumor size, Prior recurrence rate, T-category, CIS, and Grade. Note: These tables often overestimate risk in BCG-treated patients (see CUETO model).
Primary Source EvidenceSylvester RJ, van der Meijden AP, Oosterlinck W, et al. Predicting recurrence and progression in individual patients with stage Ta T1 bladder cancer using EORTC risk tables: a combined analysis of 2596 patients from seven EORTC trials. Eur Urol. 2006;49(3):466-477.
Formula Logic
Sum of points for Recurrence and Progression separately.

Reference Data

Score (Rec / Prog)1-Year Risk5-Year Risk
Recurrence 015%31%
Recurrence 1-424%46%
Recurrence 5-938%62%
Recurrence 10-1761%78%
Progression 00.2%0.8%
Progression 2-61%6%
Progression 7-135%17%
Progression 14-2317%45%

Clinical Workflow

Use, Interpret, And Continue The Patient Pathway

Expand for workflow guidance, limitations, examples, and related next steps.

When To Use

  • Use EORTC NMIBC Risk Calculator — Bladder Cancer Recurrence & Progression when calculate non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) recurrence and progression risk using the EORTC scoring system. Evidence-based risk stratification for clinical decision-making.
  • Confirm that the patient, diagnosis, disease phase, and available inputs match the cited model before calculation.

How To Interpret

  • Interpret the displayed result using the calculator-specific formula and reference table, spanning Recurrence 0 through Progression 14-23.
  • A boundary result should prompt input verification and clinical review rather than false precision.

What To Do Next

  • Confirm stage, grade, CIS, tumor number and size, prior recurrence, BCG exposure, pathology review, and guideline risk group.
  • Document the inputs, result, timing, and clinical context so the assessment can be reproduced.

Limitations

  • Historical EORTC, CUETO, and contemporary EAU groups use different populations and should not be interchanged.
  • The result supports clinician judgment and does not independently determine treatment.

Validated Population

patients with non-muscle-invasive or urothelial cancer in the recurrence/progression setting described by the model

How to apply this result

For a representative case, verify Number of Tumors, Tumor Diameter, Prior Recurrence Rate, calculate the result, and confirm that its classification matches the highlighted reference band before continuing the disease-specific pathway.

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Related Tools

CUETO Risk Score (BCG-Treated)EAU NMIBC Risk Stratification (2024)

Frequently Asked Questions

When should EORTC NMIBC Risk Calculator — Bladder Cancer Recurrence & Progression be used?

Use it for patients with non-muscle-invasive or urothelial cancer in the recurrence/progression setting described by the model when all required inputs and the intended clinical setting are confirmed.

Can EORTC NMIBC Risk Calculator — Bladder Cancer Recurrence & Progression determine treatment by itself?

No. Interpret the result with the cited evidence, complete clinical assessment, current guidelines, and patient-specific goals.

Evidence-based oncology decision support. Verify with clinical guidelines.